NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA OKC
Points 106.5 114.8
Total Points   221.3
Points From 2-Pointers 48.0 59.1
Points From 3-Pointers 39.7 39.8
Points From Free Throws 18.8 15.9
Shooting MIA OKC
Field Goals Made 37.2 42.8
Field Goals Attempted 85.6 85.8
Field Goal % 43.5% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 24.0 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 49.5 50.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 36.1 35.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 18.8 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 19.4
Free Throw % 81.9% 82.0%
Ball Control MIA OKC
Rebounds 47.6 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.2 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.6
Turnovers 13.3 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.2 6.0
Steals 6.8 6.8
Fouls 16.2 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA OKC
Total Possessions 100.6
Effective Scoring Chances 98.7 97.3
% of Possessions with MIA OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 32.3%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.1%
Turnover 13.3% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA OKC
Shot Blocked 7.1% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 19.2%