NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAC HOU
Points 117.2 114.0
Total Points   231.2
Points From 2-Pointers 58.0 55.4
Points From 3-Pointers 40.7 38.8
Points From Free Throws 18.5 19.8
Shooting SAC HOU
Field Goals Made 42.6 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 89.3 88.1
Field Goal % 47.7% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 27.7
2 Pointers Attempted 50.6 53.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.6 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 38.7 35.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 18.5 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 25.8
Free Throw % 74.6% 76.8%
Ball Control SAC HOU
Rebounds 51.7 48.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 37.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 11.4
Turnovers 11.9 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.8
Steals 6.9 6.9
Fouls 19.0 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAC HOU
Total Possessions 103.4
Effective Scoring Chances 104.2 103.1
% of Possessions with SAC HOU
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 30.0%
Player Fouled 17.7% 18.3%
Turnover 11.5% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAC HOU
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 22.6%