NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NY MIA
Points 108.6 106.8
Total Points   215.4
Points From 2-Pointers 53.4 52.6
Points From 3-Pointers 39.6 37.1
Points From Free Throws 15.6 17.1
Shooting NY MIA
Field Goals Made 39.9 38.7
Field Goals Attempted 85.5 83.5
Field Goal % 46.7% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.7 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 48.6 49.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 36.8 33.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 15.6 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 20.9
Free Throw % 77.5% 81.9%
Ball Control NY MIA
Rebounds 49.1 45.3
Rebounds - Defensive 36.5 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 10.1
Turnovers 11.8 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.2
Steals 6.0 6.0
Fouls 16.6 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NY MIA
Total Possessions 97.0
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 95.6
% of Possessions with NY MIA
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 31.1%
Player Fouled 16.4% 17.1%
Turnover 12.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NY MIA
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 21.6%