NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NY HOU
Points 114.9 113.0
Total Points   227.9
Points From 2-Pointers 56.0 56.7
Points From 3-Pointers 38.6 38.7
Points From Free Throws 20.3 17.6
Shooting NY HOU
Field Goals Made 40.9 41.2
Field Goals Attempted 87.7 88.9
Field Goal % 46.6% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 28.0 28.4
2 Pointers Attempted 52.0 53.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 35.8 36.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 20.3 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 23.0
Free Throw % 77.4% 76.8%
Ball Control NY HOU
Rebounds 51.8 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 35.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.8 13.2
Turnovers 11.6 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.7
Steals 6.5 6.1
Fouls 17.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NY HOU
Total Possessions 100.2
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 102.3
% of Possessions with NY HOU
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 31.2%
Player Fouled 18.6% 17.0%
Turnover 11.6% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NY HOU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 26.3%