NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL MIA
Points 112.4 110.8
Total Points   223.2
Points From 2-Pointers 60.3 54.8
Points From 3-Pointers 35.5 40.8
Points From Free Throws 16.5 15.2
Shooting LAL MIA
Field Goals Made 42.0 41.0
Field Goals Attempted 83.4 89.8
Field Goal % 50.4% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 30.2 27.4
2 Pointers Attempted 50.5 53.3
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 13.6
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 36.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 16.5 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 18.5
Free Throw % 77.7% 81.9%
Ball Control LAL MIA
Rebounds 47.3 46.7
Rebounds - Defensive 39.6 36.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 10.6
Turnovers 12.8 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.1
Steals 5.7 7.5
Fouls 14.3 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL MIA
Total Possessions 101.0
Effective Scoring Chances 96.0 100.4
% of Possessions with LAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 32.2%
Player Fouled 16.6% 14.1%
Turnover 12.7% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 17.7% 21.1%