NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL HOU
Points 118.2 115.9
Total Points   234.1
Points From 2-Pointers 63.1 58.9
Points From 3-Pointers 33.6 41.5
Points From Free Throws 21.6 15.5
Shooting LAL HOU
Field Goals Made 42.7 43.3
Field Goals Attempted 84.5 95.7
Field Goal % 50.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 31.5 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 56.8
2 Point Shooting % 59.1% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 31.1 38.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 21.6 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 27.8 20.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.8%
Ball Control LAL HOU
Rebounds 49.7 49.8
Rebounds - Defensive 40.7 36.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 13.7
Turnovers 12.8 10.9
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.4
Steals 6.3 7.6
Fouls 14.7 19.8

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL HOU
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 100.6 107.2
% of Possessions with LAL HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 32.3%
Player Fouled 19.0% 14.1%
Turnover 12.3% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL HOU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 25.2%