NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL PHO
Points 114.2 116.8
Total Points   231.0
Points From 2-Pointers 60.5 61.2
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 40.1
Points From Free Throws 17.8 15.5
Shooting LAL PHO
Field Goals Made 42.2 44.0
Field Goals Attempted 87.8 90.1
Field Goal % 48.1% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 30.2 30.6
2 Pointers Attempted 55.7 55.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.1 34.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 17.8 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 19.3
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.7%
Ball Control LAL PHO
Rebounds 45.6 50.2
Rebounds - Defensive 36.1 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 11.7
Turnovers 11.8 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.3 5.2
Steals 7.3 7.2
Fouls 14.6 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL PHO
Total Possessions 103.0
Effective Scoring Chances 100.7 101.5
% of Possessions with LAL PHO
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 29.8%
Player Fouled 16.6% 14.2%
Turnover 11.5% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL PHO
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 24.4%