NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIA
Points 111.0 109.0
Total Points   220.0
Points From 2-Pointers 52.5 52.0
Points From 3-Pointers 42.9 38.8
Points From Free Throws 15.6 18.3
Shooting DAL MIA
Field Goals Made 40.5 38.9
Field Goals Attempted 85.6 86.6
Field Goal % 47.4% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 26.0
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 52.0
2 Point Shooting % 58.3% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 40.6 34.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 15.6 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 22.3
Free Throw % 75.4% 81.9%
Ball Control DAL MIA
Rebounds 48.4 48.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.9 38.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 10.5
Turnovers 11.8 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.6
Steals 5.5 7.0
Fouls 16.9 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIA
Total Possessions 100.4
Effective Scoring Chances 98.1 99.4
% of Possessions with DAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 36.6% 30.7%
Player Fouled 17.2% 16.8%
Turnover 11.7% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.1% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 21.3%