NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIA
Points 110.5 106.7
Total Points   217.2
Points From 2-Pointers 53.0 51.5
Points From 3-Pointers 41.9 37.2
Points From Free Throws 15.6 18.0
Shooting DAL MIA
Field Goals Made 40.5 38.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.0 86.1
Field Goal % 47.6% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.5 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.3 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 58.5% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 39.7 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.6 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 22.0
Free Throw % 74.4% 81.9%
Ball Control DAL MIA
Rebounds 48.8 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.6
Turnovers 11.6 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.8 2.7
Steals 5.4 6.7
Fouls 17.0 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIA
Total Possessions 99.5
Effective Scoring Chances 97.7 98.7
% of Possessions with DAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 36.0% 30.5%
Player Fouled 17.5% 17.1%
Turnover 11.6% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.2% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 21.3%