NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL TOR
Points 123.1 110.2
Total Points   233.3
Points From 2-Pointers 62.1 58.3
Points From 3-Pointers 44.5 34.8
Points From Free Throws 16.5 17.1
Shooting DAL TOR
Field Goals Made 45.9 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 90.1 90.1
Field Goal % 51.0% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 31.0 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 50.5 57.0
2 Point Shooting % 61.5% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 14.8 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 39.6 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 16.5 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 22.4
Free Throw % 75.3% 76.6%
Ball Control DAL TOR
Rebounds 51.2 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 12.3
Turnovers 11.8 12.7
Blocked Shots 6.2 3.5
Steals 6.1 6.9
Fouls 16.3 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL TOR
Total Possessions 103.2
Effective Scoring Chances 103.2 102.8
% of Possessions with DAL TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 28.1%
Player Fouled 17.9% 15.7%
Turnover 11.5% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL TOR
Shot Blocked 4.0% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 23.8%