NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL TOR
Points 123.1 110.9
Total Points   234.0
Points From 2-Pointers 61.7 59.0
Points From 3-Pointers 45.0 34.8
Points From Free Throws 16.4 17.1
Shooting DAL TOR
Field Goals Made 45.9 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 90.3 90.6
Field Goal % 50.8% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.9 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 50.5 57.3
2 Point Shooting % 61.1% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 15.0 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 39.8 33.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 16.4 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 22.3
Free Throw % 75.4% 76.6%
Ball Control DAL TOR
Rebounds 51.1 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.5 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 12.3
Turnovers 11.9 12.6
Blocked Shots 6.1 3.6
Steals 6.1 7.0
Fouls 16.1 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL TOR
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 103.2
% of Possessions with DAL TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 34.1% 28.1%
Player Fouled 17.7% 15.6%
Turnover 11.5% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL TOR
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 23.7%