NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK MIA
Points 105.3 108.6
Total Points   213.9
Points From 2-Pointers 50.9 53.3
Points From 3-Pointers 39.5 37.8
Points From Free Throws 14.9 17.5
Shooting BK MIA
Field Goals Made 38.6 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 85.5 85.4
Field Goal % 45.1% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 26.7
2 Pointers Attempted 47.3 51.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 38.3 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.9 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 21.4
Free Throw % 76.0% 81.9%
Ball Control BK MIA
Rebounds 48.8 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 38.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 10.1
Turnovers 12.1 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.2
Steals 5.5 6.3
Fouls 16.9 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK MIA
Total Possessions 98.5
Effective Scoring Chances 97.4 97.6
% of Possessions with BK MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 34.5% 30.8%
Player Fouled 15.8% 17.2%
Turnover 12.3% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK MIA
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 21.1%