NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK TOR
Points 116.9 111.5
Total Points   228.4
Points From 2-Pointers 59.4 60.3
Points From 3-Pointers 41.9 34.6
Points From Free Throws 15.6 16.6
Shooting BK TOR
Field Goals Made 43.6 41.7
Field Goals Attempted 91.1 89.6
Field Goal % 47.9% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 29.7 30.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.0 56.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 38.1 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 15.6 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 21.7
Free Throw % 76.0% 76.6%
Ball Control BK TOR
Rebounds 52.1 47.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.9 11.9
Turnovers 12.4 12.1
Blocked Shots 6.0 4.4
Steals 6.1 6.5
Fouls 16.2 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK TOR
Total Possessions 101.9
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 101.7
% of Possessions with BK TOR
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 28.4%
Player Fouled 16.2% 15.9%
Turnover 12.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK TOR
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 23.8%