NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN MEM
Points 116.3 103.1
Total Points   219.3
Points From 2-Pointers 63.6 52.1
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 34.0
Points From Free Throws 16.2 17.0
Shooting DEN MEM
Field Goals Made 44.0 37.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 88.6
Field Goal % 50.2% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 31.8 26.1
2 Pointers Attempted 55.4 54.5
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 16.2 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 22.3
Free Throw % 77.5% 76.6%
Ball Control DEN MEM
Rebounds 52.2 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 40.1 33.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 13.2
Turnovers 12.6 12.2
Blocked Shots 6.8 5.6
Steals 6.9 7.0
Fouls 16.2 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN MEM
Total Possessions 100.1
Effective Scoring Chances 99.6 101.1
% of Possessions with DEN MEM
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 29.4%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.2%
Turnover 12.6% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN MEM
Shot Blocked 6.5% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 24.7%