NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN MIA
Points 110.8 105.7
Total Points   216.4
Points From 2-Pointers 62.0 54.2
Points From 3-Pointers 34.7 32.9
Points From Free Throws 14.1 18.5
Shooting DEN MIA
Field Goals Made 42.6 38.1
Field Goals Attempted 86.2 85.7
Field Goal % 49.4% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.0 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 54.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.0 31.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 14.1 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 22.6
Free Throw % 77.0% 81.9%
Ball Control DEN MIA
Rebounds 49.3 45.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.7 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 10.5
Turnovers 11.4 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.0
Steals 5.5 6.5
Fouls 16.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN MIA
Total Possessions 98.2
Effective Scoring Chances 97.3 98.4
% of Possessions with DEN MIA
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 28.1%
Player Fouled 15.6% 16.8%
Turnover 11.7% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN MIA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 21.4%