NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN LAL
Points 116.9 112.4
Total Points   229.3
Points From 2-Pointers 66.8 63.1
Points From 3-Pointers 36.9 30.4
Points From Free Throws 13.2 18.9
Shooting DEN LAL
Field Goals Made 45.7 41.7
Field Goals Attempted 93.4 85.8
Field Goal % 48.9% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 33.4 31.5
2 Pointers Attempted 60.2 57.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 28.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 13.2 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 24.4
Free Throw % 77.0% 77.6%
Ball Control DEN LAL
Rebounds 50.1 46.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.6 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 9.2
Turnovers 10.8 11.3
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.4
Steals 6.7 6.0
Fouls 17.3 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN LAL
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 99.5
% of Possessions with DEN LAL
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 25.0%
Player Fouled 13.4% 17.1%
Turnover 10.6% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN LAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 19.6%