NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN LAL
Points 115.5 112.2
Total Points   227.7
Points From 2-Pointers 65.1 63.1
Points From 3-Pointers 37.4 30.4
Points From Free Throws 13.0 18.7
Shooting DEN LAL
Field Goals Made 45.0 41.7
Field Goals Attempted 92.5 85.5
Field Goal % 48.6% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 32.5 31.6
2 Pointers Attempted 59.1 56.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.5 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 13.0 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 24.1
Free Throw % 77.9% 77.5%
Ball Control DEN LAL
Rebounds 49.4 46.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 37.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 9.1
Turnovers 10.9 11.1
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.5
Steals 6.7 6.0
Fouls 17.0 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN LAL
Total Possessions 101.0
Effective Scoring Chances 102.2 99.0
% of Possessions with DEN LAL
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 25.5%
Player Fouled 13.5% 16.8%
Turnover 10.7% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN LAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 19.6%