NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN NO
Points 112.1 109.0
Total Points   221.2
Points From 2-Pointers 60.8 60.3
Points From 3-Pointers 36.3 30.8
Points From Free Throws 15.1 17.8
Shooting DEN NO
Field Goals Made 42.5 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 86.8 87.2
Field Goal % 48.9% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.4 30.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.7 57.8
2 Point Shooting % 57.7% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 29.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 15.1 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 22.9
Free Throw % 77.4% 77.9%
Ball Control DEN NO
Rebounds 48.3 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 11.9
Turnovers 11.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.3 4.1
Steals 5.6 7.0
Fouls 15.7 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN NO
Total Possessions 99.0
Effective Scoring Chances 98.3 100.2
% of Possessions with DEN NO
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 26.0%
Player Fouled 16.4% 15.9%
Turnover 12.0% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN NO
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 24.2%