NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN NO
Points 111.6 109.2
Total Points   220.7
Points From 2-Pointers 60.1 60.7
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 31.0
Points From Free Throws 15.0 17.5
Shooting DEN NO
Field Goals Made 42.2 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 86.5 87.1
Field Goal % 48.8% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 30.1 30.3
2 Pointers Attempted 52.3 57.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 29.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 15.0 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 22.4
Free Throw % 77.4% 77.9%
Ball Control DEN NO
Rebounds 48.0 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.9 35.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.7
Turnovers 11.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.2
Steals 5.7 7.0
Fouls 15.6 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN NO
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 99.8
% of Possessions with DEN NO
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 51.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 26.1%
Player Fouled 16.5% 15.8%
Turnover 12.1% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN NO
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 24.1%