NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN NO
Points 112.3 109.1
Total Points   221.4
Points From 2-Pointers 61.2 60.3
Points From 3-Pointers 36.1 31.0
Points From Free Throws 15.1 17.8
Shooting DEN NO
Field Goals Made 42.6 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 86.9 87.2
Field Goal % 49.1% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.6 30.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 57.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.0 29.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 15.1 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 22.8
Free Throw % 77.2% 77.8%
Ball Control DEN NO
Rebounds 48.4 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 11.8
Turnovers 11.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.3 4.0
Steals 5.6 6.9
Fouls 15.8 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN NO
Total Possessions 99.0
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 100.2
% of Possessions with DEN NO
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 25.9%
Player Fouled 16.3% 15.9%
Turnover 11.9% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN NO
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 24.1%