NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN HOU
Points 117.0 110.4
Total Points   227.5
Points From 2-Pointers 65.4 57.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.3 33.4
Points From Free Throws 18.3 19.2
Shooting DEN HOU
Field Goals Made 43.8 40.0
Field Goals Attempted 88.2 90.7
Field Goal % 49.7% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 32.7 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 56.7 57.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.7% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 31.5 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 18.3 19.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 25.0
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.8%
Ball Control DEN HOU
Rebounds 51.9 48.6
Rebounds - Defensive 39.6 34.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.6
Turnovers 11.3 10.2
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.3
Steals 6.1 6.4
Fouls 17.2 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN HOU
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 102.2 104.8
% of Possessions with DEN HOU
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 28.1%
Player Fouled 17.8% 17.0%
Turnover 11.2% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN HOU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 25.6%