NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN SA
Points 116.6 108.8
Total Points   225.4
Points From 2-Pointers 69.2 60.0
Points From 3-Pointers 32.9 32.8
Points From Free Throws 14.5 16.1
Shooting DEN SA
Field Goals Made 45.6 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 92.5 90.1
Field Goal % 49.3% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 34.6 30.0
2 Pointers Attempted 62.7 57.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 29.8 32.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 14.5 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 20.7
Free Throw % 77.4% 77.6%
Ball Control DEN SA
Rebounds 51.2 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 36.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.0
Turnovers 11.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 5.0 5.6
Steals 7.4 5.9
Fouls 15.4 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN SA
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 103.0 102.1
% of Possessions with DEN SA
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 28.1%
Player Fouled 14.4% 15.0%
Turnover 10.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN SA
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 23.5%