NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN POR
Points 119.3 103.8
Total Points   223.1
Points From 2-Pointers 70.7 57.2
Points From 3-Pointers 31.1 29.5
Points From Free Throws 17.6 17.1
Shooting DEN POR
Field Goals Made 45.7 38.4
Field Goals Attempted 86.6 90.4
Field Goal % 52.8% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 35.3 28.6
2 Pointers Attempted 57.0 60.7
2 Point Shooting % 62.0% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 29.6 29.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 17.6 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 21.5
Free Throw % 77.0% 79.4%
Ball Control DEN POR
Rebounds 50.5 46.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.6 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 15.0
Turnovers 11.6 12.1
Blocked Shots 6.7 3.9
Steals 7.2 6.2
Fouls 15.3 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN POR
Total Possessions 99.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.1 102.7
% of Possessions with DEN POR
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 25.3%
Player Fouled 17.7% 15.4%
Turnover 11.6% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN POR
Shot Blocked 4.5% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 27.9%