NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND ATL
Points 130.2 120.5
Total Points   250.7
Points From 2-Pointers 71.8 65.6
Points From 3-Pointers 41.9 33.0
Points From Free Throws 16.6 21.9
Shooting IND ATL
Field Goals Made 49.8 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 91.2
Field Goal % 54.3% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 35.9 32.8
2 Pointers Attempted 56.4 60.8
2 Point Shooting % 63.6% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 35.4 30.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 16.6 21.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 27.9
Free Throw % 77.3% 78.3%
Ball Control IND ATL
Rebounds 46.7 48.0
Rebounds - Defensive 36.0 33.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 14.2
Turnovers 11.6 12.2
Blocked Shots 6.4 4.3
Steals 6.8 5.8
Fouls 19.5 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND ATL
Total Possessions 105.2
Effective Scoring Chances 104.3 107.2
% of Possessions with IND ATL
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 16.2% 18.5%
Turnover 11.0% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND ATL
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 28.3%