NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MIA
Points 116.6 112.4
Total Points   229.0
Points From 2-Pointers 63.4 61.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.5 30.1
Points From Free Throws 14.7 21.2
Shooting IND MIA
Field Goals Made 44.5 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 88.3 85.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.7 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.9 57.5
2 Point Shooting % 61.1% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 36.4 28.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 14.7 21.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 25.9
Free Throw % 77.2% 81.9%
Ball Control IND MIA
Rebounds 46.3 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.5 36.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.7
Turnovers 11.6 11.6
Blocked Shots 5.3 3.2
Steals 5.9 6.0
Fouls 19.4 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MIA
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 99.6 100.4
% of Possessions with IND MIA
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 24.6%
Player Fouled 15.6% 19.1%
Turnover 11.4% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MIA
Shot Blocked 3.8% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 22.7%