NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND DEN
Points 117.0 119.6
Total Points   236.6
Points From 2-Pointers 67.6 72.8
Points From 3-Pointers 32.6 27.9
Points From Free Throws 16.8 18.9
Shooting IND DEN
Field Goals Made 44.7 45.7
Field Goals Attempted 91.5 89.5
Field Goal % 48.8% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 33.8 36.4
2 Pointers Attempted 60.6 63.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 30.9 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 16.8 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 24.5
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.0%
Ball Control IND DEN
Rebounds 45.4 50.2
Rebounds - Defensive 33.8 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 12.7
Turnovers 10.2 11.3
Blocked Shots 5.4 5.5
Steals 6.2 5.4
Fouls 18.6 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND DEN
Total Possessions 102.2
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 103.6
% of Possessions with IND DEN
2 Point Attempt 52.2% 54.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 22.1%
Player Fouled 15.9% 18.2%
Turnover 10.0% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND DEN
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 27.4%