NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND NO
Points 118.2 116.8
Total Points   235.0
Points From 2-Pointers 62.2 67.1
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 29.1
Points From Free Throws 15.6 20.7
Shooting IND NO
Field Goals Made 44.6 43.2
Field Goals Attempted 89.5 87.3
Field Goal % 49.8% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 31.1 33.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.8 60.6
2 Point Shooting % 60.1% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 37.7 26.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 15.6 20.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 26.5
Free Throw % 77.3% 77.9%
Ball Control IND NO
Rebounds 45.4 48.6
Rebounds - Defensive 34.8 36.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 12.1
Turnovers 11.9 12.1
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.5
Steals 6.0 6.6
Fouls 18.5 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND NO
Total Possessions 102.5
Effective Scoring Chances 101.1 102.5
% of Possessions with IND NO
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 51.9%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 22.9%
Player Fouled 16.4% 18.1%
Turnover 11.6% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND NO
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 25.7%