NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND HOU
Points 122.9 118.6
Total Points   241.5
Points From 2-Pointers 67.3 65.4
Points From 3-Pointers 36.8 31.3
Points From Free Throws 18.8 22.0
Shooting IND HOU
Field Goals Made 45.9 43.1
Field Goals Attempted 90.4 90.9
Field Goal % 50.8% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 33.7 32.7
2 Pointers Attempted 55.7 60.9
2 Point Shooting % 60.4% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.7 29.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 18.8 22.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 28.7
Free Throw % 76.9% 76.8%
Ball Control IND HOU
Rebounds 48.4 49.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 13.9
Turnovers 11.4 11.4
Blocked Shots 6.4 4.5
Steals 6.4 6.1
Fouls 19.9 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND HOU
Total Possessions 104.6
Effective Scoring Chances 104.6 107.2
% of Possessions with IND HOU
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 24.7%
Player Fouled 17.7% 19.1%
Turnover 10.9% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND HOU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 27.3%