NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MIN
Points 112.9 116.6
Total Points   229.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.3 63.9
Points From 3-Pointers 34.3 30.7
Points From Free Throws 17.2 22.0
Shooting IND MIN
Field Goals Made 42.1 42.2
Field Goals Attempted 89.5 84.5
Field Goal % 47.1% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 30.7 32.0
2 Pointers Attempted 58.0 57.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 31.4 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 17.2 22.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 28.3
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.6%
Ball Control IND MIN
Rebounds 45.5 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 34.3 38.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 11.3
Turnovers 12.2 13.1
Blocked Shots 5.0 5.8
Steals 7.0 6.3
Fouls 20.9 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MIN
Total Possessions 102.9
Effective Scoring Chances 102.0 101.1
% of Possessions with IND MIN
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 23.2%
Player Fouled 16.7% 20.3%
Turnover 11.8% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MIN
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 24.7%