NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO MIL
Points 113.0 113.2
Total Points   226.2
Points From 2-Pointers 59.8 51.2
Points From 3-Pointers 36.1 44.5
Points From Free Throws 17.1 17.4
Shooting NO MIL
Field Goals Made 41.9 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 88.7 85.4
Field Goal % 47.3% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 29.9 25.6
2 Pointers Attempted 55.6 44.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 14.8
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 41.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 17.1 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 22.3
Free Throw % 77.9% 78.0%
Ball Control NO MIL
Rebounds 48.8 47.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 38.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 9.6
Turnovers 10.5 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.4
Steals 7.0 5.5
Fouls 17.2 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO MIL
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 101.4 98.4
% of Possessions with NO MIL
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 39.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 36.7%
Player Fouled 16.6% 17.0%
Turnover 10.4% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO MIL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 20.3%