NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO DAL
Points 112.7 112.7
Total Points   225.4
Points From 2-Pointers 58.2 51.5
Points From 3-Pointers 36.8 44.5
Points From Free Throws 17.7 16.6
Shooting NO DAL
Field Goals Made 41.4 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 88.1 86.2
Field Goal % 47.0% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 29.1 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 55.5 44.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 14.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.5 41.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 17.7 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 22.0
Free Throw % 77.6% 75.4%
Ball Control NO DAL
Rebounds 50.2 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 38.4 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 10.0
Turnovers 11.8 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 5.0
Steals 7.4 5.5
Fouls 18.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO DAL
Total Possessions 101.2
Effective Scoring Chances 101.2 99.2
% of Possessions with NO DAL
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 37.0%
Player Fouled 16.1% 18.1%
Turnover 11.6% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO DAL
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 20.7%