NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO TOR
Points 121.0 109.0
Total Points   230.0
Points From 2-Pointers 66.0 56.9
Points From 3-Pointers 38.5 35.9
Points From Free Throws 16.5 16.1
Shooting NO TOR
Field Goals Made 45.8 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 89.2 87.4
Field Goal % 51.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 33.0 28.5
2 Pointers Attempted 55.6 51.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.4% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 36.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 16.5 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 21.0
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.6%
Ball Control NO TOR
Rebounds 50.4 44.4
Rebounds - Defensive 38.1 33.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 11.0
Turnovers 12.3 13.3
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.4
Steals 7.3 6.2
Fouls 16.2 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO TOR
Total Possessions 101.7
Effective Scoring Chances 101.8 99.4
% of Possessions with NO TOR
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 31.3%
Player Fouled 16.1% 15.9%
Turnover 12.1% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO TOR
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 22.5%