NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO PHO
Points 111.4 112.2
Total Points   223.5
Points From 2-Pointers 57.6 55.4
Points From 3-Pointers 36.9 39.0
Points From Free Throws 16.9 17.8
Shooting NO PHO
Field Goals Made 41.1 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 89.2 83.3
Field Goal % 46.1% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 28.8 27.7
2 Pointers Attempted 55.8 48.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.4 35.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 16.9 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 22.0
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.7%
Ball Control NO PHO
Rebounds 46.5 48.4
Rebounds - Defensive 34.3 38.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 10.4
Turnovers 11.1 14.3
Blocked Shots 4.0 5.4
Steals 8.4 5.9
Fouls 17.5 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO PHO
Total Possessions 100.4
Effective Scoring Chances 101.5 96.5
% of Possessions with NO PHO
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 31.3%
Player Fouled 15.7% 17.4%
Turnover 11.0% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO PHO
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 23.3%