NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR MIA
Points 107.9 116.0
Total Points   223.9
Points From 2-Pointers 58.2 59.0
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 40.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 16.8
Shooting TOR MIA
Field Goals Made 40.6 42.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 87.7
Field Goal % 47.0% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 29.1 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.7 52.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.7 35.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.2 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 20.6
Free Throw % 76.6% 81.9%
Ball Control TOR MIA
Rebounds 45.8 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 35.5 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.0
Turnovers 12.9 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.9
Steals 6.3 6.8
Fouls 16.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR MIA
Total Possessions 100.8
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 99.8
% of Possessions with TOR MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.8% 31.5%
Player Fouled 15.1% 16.8%
Turnover 12.8% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 23.6%