NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR NY
Points 110.1 120.9
Total Points   231.0
Points From 2-Pointers 60.2 62.0
Points From 3-Pointers 33.8 42.4
Points From Free Throws 16.1 16.5
Shooting TOR NY
Field Goals Made 41.4 45.1
Field Goals Attempted 87.3 91.4
Field Goal % 47.4% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.1 31.0
2 Pointers Attempted 54.6 54.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 14.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.7 37.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 16.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 21.1
Free Throw % 76.6% 78.0%
Ball Control TOR NY
Rebounds 44.2 52.4
Rebounds - Defensive 32.5 36.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 16.0
Turnovers 12.6 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.2
Steals 6.2 6.7
Fouls 16.7 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR NY
Total Possessions 100.3
Effective Scoring Chances 99.5 104.3
% of Possessions with TOR NY
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 31.4%
Player Fouled 15.8% 16.6%
Turnover 12.6% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR NY
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 33.0%