NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR NY
Points 110.4 121.0
Total Points   231.4
Points From 2-Pointers 60.0 61.5
Points From 3-Pointers 34.4 43.0
Points From Free Throws 16.0 16.4
Shooting TOR NY
Field Goals Made 41.5 45.1
Field Goals Attempted 87.5 91.4
Field Goal % 47.4% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.0 30.7
2 Pointers Attempted 55.0 54.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 14.3
3 Pointers Attempted 32.6 37.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 16.0 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 21.2
Free Throw % 76.6% 77.4%
Ball Control TOR NY
Rebounds 44.6 52.2
Rebounds - Defensive 32.7 36.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 15.9
Turnovers 12.5 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.4
Steals 6.1 6.6
Fouls 16.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR NY
Total Possessions 100.2
Effective Scoring Chances 99.6 104.3
% of Possessions with TOR NY
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 31.6%
Player Fouled 15.7% 16.7%
Turnover 12.5% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR NY
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 32.7%