NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR DAL
Points 110.9 123.1
Total Points   234.0
Points From 2-Pointers 59.0 61.7
Points From 3-Pointers 34.8 45.0
Points From Free Throws 17.1 16.4
Shooting TOR DAL
Field Goals Made 41.1 45.9
Field Goals Attempted 90.6 90.3
Field Goal % 45.4% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 29.5 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 57.3 50.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 61.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 15.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.3 39.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 17.1 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 21.8
Free Throw % 76.6% 75.4%
Ball Control TOR DAL
Rebounds 47.9 51.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.7 39.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 11.6
Turnovers 12.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 6.1
Steals 7.0 6.1
Fouls 18.3 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR DAL
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 103.2 103.4
% of Possessions with TOR DAL
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 34.1%
Player Fouled 15.6% 17.7%
Turnover 12.2% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR DAL
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 24.6%