NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR HOU
Points 113.6 121.9
Total Points   235.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.2 63.4
Points From 3-Pointers 32.7 41.0
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.6
Shooting TOR HOU
Field Goals Made 41.5 45.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.4 93.3
Field Goal % 47.0% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 30.6 31.7
2 Pointers Attempted 55.2 55.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 38.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 22.9
Free Throw % 76.6% 76.8%
Ball Control TOR HOU
Rebounds 48.2 52.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.1 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 14.4
Turnovers 12.9 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.9 5.6
Steals 6.8 6.9
Fouls 17.6 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR HOU
Total Possessions 104.1
Effective Scoring Chances 103.3 106.8
% of Possessions with TOR HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 31.6%
Player Fouled 17.4% 16.9%
Turnover 12.4% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR HOU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 28.5%