NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU BOS
Points 108.0 119.8
Total Points   227.8
Points From 2-Pointers 53.4 54.1
Points From 3-Pointers 40.0 47.1
Points From Free Throws 14.6 18.6
Shooting HOU BOS
Field Goals Made 40.0 42.7
Field Goals Attempted 95.4 89.0
Field Goal % 42.0% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 26.7 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 56.4 46.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 57.8%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 15.7
3 Pointers Attempted 39.0 42.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 14.6 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 23.5
Free Throw % 76.8% 79.2%
Ball Control HOU BOS
Rebounds 50.8 54.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.6 42.5
Rebounds - Offensive 14.3 12.3
Turnovers 10.2 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.6 7.0
Steals 5.7 6.0
Fouls 16.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU BOS
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 105.6 103.1
% of Possessions with HOU BOS
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 36.7%
Player Fouled 14.9% 16.7%
Turnover 10.0% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU BOS
Shot Blocked 8.0% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 25.1%