NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MEM
Points 115.5 108.1
Total Points   223.6
Points From 2-Pointers 56.0 50.9
Points From 3-Pointers 40.5 37.5
Points From Free Throws 19.1 19.6
Shooting HOU MEM
Field Goals Made 41.5 38.0
Field Goals Attempted 89.8 87.1
Field Goal % 46.2% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.0 25.5
2 Pointers Attempted 52.4 49.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 37.4 37.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 19.1 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 25.6
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.6%
Ball Control HOU MEM
Rebounds 52.5 50.3
Rebounds - Defensive 38.8 37.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 13.1
Turnovers 12.6 13.9
Blocked Shots 5.9 6.7
Steals 7.7 7.4
Fouls 18.7 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MEM
Total Possessions 102.9
Effective Scoring Chances 103.9 102.0
% of Possessions with HOU MEM
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 31.7%
Player Fouled 17.5% 18.1%
Turnover 12.3% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MEM
Shot Blocked 7.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 25.2%