NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU ATL
Points 122.7 118.2
Total Points   240.9
Points From 2-Pointers 61.7 57.8
Points From 3-Pointers 42.0 38.9
Points From Free Throws 19.0 21.5
Shooting HOU ATL
Field Goals Made 44.8 41.9
Field Goals Attempted 91.3 89.9
Field Goal % 49.1% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 30.8 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 53.9 52.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 37.4 37.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 19.0 21.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 27.5
Free Throw % 76.8% 78.3%
Ball Control HOU ATL
Rebounds 50.0 50.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 36.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 13.7
Turnovers 11.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.8
Steals 7.2 6.5
Fouls 19.0 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU ATL
Total Possessions 104.6
Effective Scoring Chances 105.8 106.0
% of Possessions with HOU ATL
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 30.9%
Player Fouled 17.1% 18.2%
Turnover 11.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU ATL
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 27.0%