NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU ATL
Points 123.0 118.5
Total Points   241.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.8 57.9
Points From 3-Pointers 42.2 39.1
Points From Free Throws 19.0 21.5
Shooting HOU ATL
Field Goals Made 45.0 42.0
Field Goals Attempted 91.5 90.0
Field Goal % 49.2% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 30.9 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 54.0 52.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 14.1 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 37.5 37.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 19.0 21.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 27.4
Free Throw % 76.8% 78.3%
Ball Control HOU ATL
Rebounds 50.0 50.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 36.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 13.7
Turnovers 11.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.8
Steals 7.2 6.5
Fouls 18.9 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU ATL
Total Possessions 104.7
Effective Scoring Chances 105.9 106.1
% of Possessions with HOU ATL
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 30.9%
Player Fouled 17.0% 18.1%
Turnover 11.1% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU ATL
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 26.9%