NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU DEN
Points 110.3 117.0
Total Points   227.2
Points From 2-Pointers 58.0 65.6
Points From 3-Pointers 33.1 32.9
Points From Free Throws 19.1 18.4
Shooting HOU DEN
Field Goals Made 40.1 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 90.9 88.1
Field Goal % 44.1% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 32.8
2 Pointers Attempted 57.8 56.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 57.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.0 31.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 19.1 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 23.9
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.0%
Ball Control HOU DEN
Rebounds 48.5 52.0
Rebounds - Defensive 34.9 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 12.3
Turnovers 10.1 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.2 6.1
Steals 6.5 6.0
Fouls 18.0 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU DEN
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 104.8 102.2
% of Possessions with HOU DEN
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 27.2%
Player Fouled 16.9% 17.8%
Turnover 10.0% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU DEN
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 26.1%