NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU DET
Points 119.5 111.7
Total Points   231.2
Points From 2-Pointers 62.9 59.0
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 32.3
Points From Free Throws 20.6 20.4
Shooting HOU DET
Field Goals Made 43.5 40.3
Field Goals Attempted 89.7 86.7
Field Goal % 48.5% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 31.5 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 55.9 54.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 10.8
3 Pointers Attempted 33.8 32.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 20.6 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 26.9 26.0
Free Throw % 76.8% 78.3%
Ball Control HOU DET
Rebounds 49.3 49.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 37.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 11.7
Turnovers 10.7 13.7
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.9
Steals 8.3 6.0
Fouls 17.5 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU DET
Total Possessions 103.9
Effective Scoring Chances 105.1 101.8
% of Possessions with HOU DET
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 27.3%
Player Fouled 18.4% 16.8%
Turnover 10.3% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU DET
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 23.8%