NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU TOR
Points 121.9 113.6
Total Points   235.5
Points From 2-Pointers 63.4 61.2
Points From 3-Pointers 41.0 32.7
Points From Free Throws 17.6 19.7
Shooting HOU TOR
Field Goals Made 45.3 41.5
Field Goals Attempted 93.3 88.4
Field Goal % 48.6% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 31.7 30.6
2 Pointers Attempted 55.3 55.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.7 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 38.0 33.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 17.6 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 25.7
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.6%
Ball Control HOU TOR
Rebounds 52.1 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 36.1
Rebounds - Offensive 14.4 12.1
Turnovers 11.7 12.9
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.9
Steals 6.9 6.8
Fouls 18.1 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU TOR
Total Possessions 104.1
Effective Scoring Chances 106.8 103.3
% of Possessions with HOU TOR
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 28.0%
Player Fouled 16.9% 17.4%
Turnover 11.2% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU TOR
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 24.3%