NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU OKC
Points 111.7 121.0
Total Points   232.7
Points From 2-Pointers 51.6 62.6
Points From 3-Pointers 40.5 37.5
Points From Free Throws 19.6 20.9
Shooting HOU OKC
Field Goals Made 39.3 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 91.4 87.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 31.3
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 53.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 38.6 33.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 19.6 20.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 25.4
Free Throw % 76.8% 82.2%
Ball Control HOU OKC
Rebounds 50.8 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 14.9 9.9
Turnovers 12.9 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.6 7.1
Steals 6.8 7.3
Fouls 19.2 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU OKC
Total Possessions 104.0
Effective Scoring Chances 106.0 102.1
% of Possessions with HOU OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 29.3%
Player Fouled 16.8% 18.5%
Turnover 12.4% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU OKC
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 21.7%