NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU POR
Points 118.4 109.6
Total Points   228.0
Points From 2-Pointers 62.7 57.4
Points From 3-Pointers 35.0 32.9
Points From Free Throws 20.7 19.3
Shooting HOU POR
Field Goals Made 43.0 39.6
Field Goals Attempted 88.2 89.0
Field Goal % 48.8% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 31.3 28.7
2 Pointers Attempted 53.7 56.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.4% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 34.6 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 20.7 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 27.0 24.3
Free Throw % 76.8% 79.4%
Ball Control HOU POR
Rebounds 50.1 49.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 14.6
Turnovers 11.7 13.8
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.8
Steals 8.2 6.6
Fouls 17.4 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU POR
Total Possessions 102.7
Effective Scoring Chances 104.1 103.5
% of Possessions with HOU POR
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 27.6%
Player Fouled 18.5% 16.9%
Turnover 11.4% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU POR
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 28.3%