NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA HOU
Points 114.1 115.9
Total Points   230.0
Points From 2-Pointers 59.2 61.9
Points From 3-Pointers 36.6 37.0
Points From Free Throws 18.3 17.1
Shooting SA HOU
Field Goals Made 41.8 43.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.9 94.8
Field Goal % 47.0% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 29.6 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 59.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 36.1 34.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 18.3 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 22.3
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.8%
Ball Control SA HOU
Rebounds 52.3 51.0
Rebounds - Defensive 40.5 38.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 13.1
Turnovers 13.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 6.8 4.3
Steals 6.2 8.4
Fouls 15.9 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA HOU
Total Possessions 105.0
Effective Scoring Chances 103.0 107.0
% of Possessions with SA HOU
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 28.9%
Player Fouled 16.8% 15.1%
Turnover 13.1% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA HOU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 24.4%