NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA PHO
Points 110.7 117.1
Total Points   227.8
Points From 2-Pointers 56.4 64.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.9 35.6
Points From Free Throws 15.4 17.4
Shooting SA PHO
Field Goals Made 41.2 43.9
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 88.8
Field Goal % 44.8% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 28.2 32.0
2 Pointers Attempted 54.9 57.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 37.0 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 15.4 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 21.6
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.9%
Ball Control SA PHO
Rebounds 48.4 50.9
Rebounds - Defensive 35.7 39.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 11.0
Turnovers 12.6 13.2
Blocked Shots 5.4 5.1
Steals 7.2 7.9
Fouls 16.1 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA PHO
Total Possessions 103.4
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 101.2
% of Possessions with SA PHO
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 26.5%
Player Fouled 14.9% 15.5%
Turnover 12.2% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA PHO
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 23.6%