NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA OKC
Points 108.0 119.5
Total Points   227.6
Points From 2-Pointers 52.6 66.2
Points From 3-Pointers 39.1 37.1
Points From Free Throws 16.3 16.3
Shooting SA OKC
Field Goals Made 39.4 45.5
Field Goals Attempted 89.5 92.2
Field Goal % 44.0% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 33.1
2 Pointers Attempted 52.2 60.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 37.3 32.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 16.3 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 19.9
Free Throw % 77.6% 82.0%
Ball Control SA OKC
Rebounds 51.2 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.1 39.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 9.9
Turnovers 15.6 11.3
Blocked Shots 6.2 6.1
Steals 6.3 9.0
Fouls 15.7 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA OKC
Total Possessions 104.3
Effective Scoring Chances 101.8 102.9
% of Possessions with SA OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 51.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 27.6%
Player Fouled 14.9% 15.0%
Turnover 14.9% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA OKC
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 20.6%